糖化血红蛋白变异指数预测T2DM患者心脑血管事件及模型构建

骆 凯帆1, 方 敏*2
1、汕头大学医学院　全科医学科
2、惠州市中心人民医院

摘要


目的：本研究旨在探讨糖化血红蛋白变异指数（HGI）与2型糖尿病（T2DM）患者发生心脑血管疾病的关系，并构建基于HGI的临床预测模型，以评估其在预测T2DM患者心脑血管并发症中的价值。方法：本研究选取450例T2DM患者为研究对象，其中以T2DM合并心脑血管疾病为实验组（N=115例），以单纯T2DM为对照组（N=335例）。分析比较两组一般资料、HGI、生化指标等差异，采用Logistic回归分析评估T2DM患者发生心脑血管疾病的危险因素，构建基于T2DM患者并发心脑血管疾病的预测模型，并通过ROC曲线分析预测模型的效能。结果：T2DM合并心脑血管疾病组HGI低于单纯T2DM组，差异无统计学意义（P>0.05）。Logistic回归分析显示，HGI是T2DM合并心脑血管的独立危险因素，差异具有统计学意义（P=0.01）。ROC曲线分析显示，HGI预测T2DM患者发生心脑血管疾病的曲线下面积为0.71，敏感度为43%，特异度为90%，具有较好的诊断价值，通过验证集数据集进行内部验证，与训练集结论一致。结论：HGI是T2DM合并心脑血管疾病的独立危险因素，基于HGI的预测模型对T2DM患者发生心脑血管并发症具有较好的诊断效能。

关键词


糖化血红蛋白变异指数；2型糖尿病；心脑血管疾病；预测模型

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参考


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